Will the world be safer with Bin Laden dead? The answer, in my view, is yes - over the long-term. Al Queda will be less powerful without its leader. To the degree that its power is minimized, the world will be safer, which is good for stocks.
In the short-term, however, there is a risk that his followers could try to avenge his killing. Any attempted retaliation could send stocks down and push up the price of precious metals. There has also been debate among analysts on whether Osama’s death would have any economic impact on the world’s economy.
Amidst celebrations announcement of Osama bin Laden’s death, the Dow Jones industrial average, the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the Nasdaq composite rose by 0.3, 0.2 and 0.2 percent respectively. The US dollar also strengthened briefly on May 1st before declining later on Monday.Globally, most major stock markets reacted positively to the news of Osama’s death. Meanwhile both oil and gold prices fell slightly in the immediate aftermath of announcement.This seems like a gut reaction to what the West views as a happy event. A lot of times we see markets move on happy news that in reality has nothing to do with the market, and I think this is one of them,”
In Indian prospect the hawala market and the so called money financed by the underworld in real estate and films will be recalled that could bring a low to the market as well as otherwise booming property market in India but it could be a short term phenomenon.India should and will try to mount pressure for Dawood and Company .India should also try to strengthen relations with US .Pakistan is most likely to become a US base now .And ofcourse the terror threat cant be ruled out.
As we look at the political instability in the Middle East, we struck by the fact that Al Qaeda appears to be a nonfactor. we did not see pictures of Osama or placards for Al Qaeda in the coverage of Egypt, Lybia ,Seriya ,Egypt or even Iraq. Osama may have been the Devil, but he has not been a key driver in the political revolutions in the Arab world.
Still, it is worth watching how this evolves, especially in his home country of Saudi Arabia. If Al Qaeda becomes more active, this could be a negative for oil prices and the stock market. But right now, there is no way to handicap whether this will occur. The fact that he’s gone doesn’t significantly change the geopolitical situation,” Roubini said. “I think the death of bin Laden doesn’t significantly change that.”
