As the campaign for the 2012 elections takes off in the ultimate political battleground of UP, there are straws in the wind to suggest that the Anna effect may well outlast its founder. Take the case of Mayawati. Over the last six months, the Empress of Lucknow has sacked as many as 20 ministers on corruption charges. While Mayawati has never shied away from displaying an authoritarian streak, the manner in which she has chosen to virtually cleanse her cabinet suggests the BSP Supremo is acutely conscious of the damage the serious corruption charges have done to her image.
Now, take the case of Mayawati's great rival for power in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi party. Last week, its new face Akhilesh Yadav did something his father, Mulayam Singh, would probably never have done. He refused to admit DP Yadav, once seen as the unquestioned don of western Uttar Pradesh, into the Samajwadi party fold, even removing party spokersperson Mohan Singh from his post for endorsing the don's entry. A candid Akhilesh publicly claimed that the Samajwadi Party no longer had time or space for the mafia.For a party which has been tainted by the tag of criminality, Akhilesh's decision marks an important shift in strategy. In the Mulayam Singh-Amar Singh years, the Samajwadi Party was seen as a cash-and-carry party which provided free entry to those with money and muscle power.
What Akhilesh Yadav is attempting now, Rahul Gandhi has been trying in Uttar Pradesh for some time now. In all his campaign speeches, Rahul emphasises on the need to break away from the web of caste, corruption and criminality that UP has been mired in for over two decades now. Caste is an inescapable reality, one which no party can ignore, but by taking a stand on not giving tickets to criminal candidates, Rahul is hoping to offset the organisational limitations confronting the Congress party on the ground.
It's a claim that the BJP too was hoping to make till the Babu Singh Kushwaha episode saw it score a virtual self-goal. Such was the anger within and outside the party, that the BJP was eventually forced to go through the bizarre charade of getting Mr Kushwaha to 'suspend' himself from party membership till he was cleared of corruption charges.
None of this is to suggest that there will be a dramatic change in the quality of elected representatives, especially in the absence of long-term election reforms. There will still be Bahubalis ('musclemen') who will make it to the Vidhan Sabha.But politics is as much about perception as it is about reality. And this is where the Anna factor creeps in.Even if Anna stays back in Ralegan Siddhi and doesn't campaign in the elections, his ghost will haunt the political class. Which is why the BJP was forced to change its chief minister in Uttarakhand six months before the elections, which is why the BJP-Akali combine in Punjab is facing a serious challenge and which is why every political party in UP is attempting an image makeover. In the end, the elections may still be decided by caste and community loyalties, but to believe it's business as usual would be a risky proposition this time .
